Nigeria’s oil output drops 6.3% to 1.627m bpd
Nigeria’s oil production declined sharply at the start of 2026, with total output falling by 6.3 per cent year-on-year to an average of 1.627 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, according to the latest data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
This represents a notable drop from the 1.737 million bpd recorded in January 2025, underscoring continuing challenges in the upstream oil sector even as global oil prices remain above federal benchmark levels.
The decline was not only evident in the year-on-year comparison but also on a month-on-month basis, where output fell by approximately 5.4 per cent from December 2025’s 1.544 million bpd to the current 1.627 million bpd figure. The range of daily combined crude and condensate production during the month varied from a low of 1.59 million bpd to a peak of 1.82 million bpd, according to the NUPRC’s National Liquid Hydrocarbon Production Report.
Nigeria’s performance continues to fall short of both its national budget and international obligations. The 2026 budget was predicated on a projected daily oil output of 1.84 million bpd, with an oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel and an exchange rate of ₦1,400 to the U.S. dollar.
The January production figure therefore marks a weak start to the fiscal year, creating additional pressure on government revenue forecasts that rely heavily on crude oil receipts.
At the same time, the country also failed to meet its Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production quota. Although total output including condensates was reported at 1.627 million bpd, the crude oil figure excluding condensates stood at an estimated 1.459 million bpd, below the OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd for the review period.
OPEC’s own February 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report corroborated this shortfall, noting a 5 per cent year-on-year decline in crude output when measured on the cartel’s basis of excluding condensates.
The implications of prolonged under-performance in oil production are significant for Nigeria’s economy. Reports from Nigerian media and industry analysts estimate that persistent failure to hit OPEC quotas and domestic production targets cost the nation an estimated ₦1.76 trillion in potential crude oil revenue between January 2025 and January 2026.
Analysts argue that these shortfalls stem from structural issues including operational inefficiencies, security concerns around oil infrastructure, and regulatory bottlenecks that hamper consistent production growth.
Despite ongoing volatility in output, the global oil market has shown some resilience. Crude prices dipped to around $67 per barrel, down modestly from recent levels near $70 per barrel, reflecting broader international market dynamics and persistent uncertainty in supply and demand.
These price trends further complicate Nigeria’s fiscal calculus, given the reliance of its federal budget on stable crude earnings.
The current production figures and revenue implications highlight the urgency for policy interventions and industry reforms. For Nigeria to stabilize its oil sector, experts emphasize the need for improved operational oversight, enhanced security around oil assets, and accelerated investment in maintaining and expanding upstream capacity.
Such measures will be critical not only to meet budgetary projections but also to restore investor confidence and reinforce Nigeria’s position as a key oil producer on the African continent.
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