BMI Forecasts Naira to Close 2026 Around N1,550/$ Despite Short-Term Gains
The Nigerian naira’s recent appreciation is likely to be short-lived, with analysts at Fitch Solutions projecting the currency to weaken toward N1,550 per dollar by the end of the year despite improved liquidity conditions in the foreign exchange market. In its latest outlook, the research firm noted that while renewed investor confidence and stronger FX inflows have supported the naira in recent weeks, underlying structural pressures remain firmly in place.
The currency has benefited from tighter monetary policy, sustained interventions and reforms introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria, including efforts to clear FX backlogs and boost transparency in the official market. Portfolio inflows have also improved as yields on government securities remain elevated, attracting offshore investors seeking higher returns in emerging markets.
However, Fitch Solutions warned that external vulnerabilities, including Nigeria’s heavy reliance on oil receipts and exposure to global commodity price swings, could limit sustained gains. Persistent demand for dollars from manufacturers, importers and individuals, alongside still-fragile foreign reserves, is expected to exert renewed pressure on the naira in the second half of the year.
The firm added that while reforms have narrowed the gap between official and parallel market rates, volatility may resurface if oil output underperforms or capital inflows slow. For businesses and investors, the projection underscores the need for prudent currency risk management as exchange rate uncertainty continues to shape Nigeria’s macroeconomic landscape.
Comments