Nigeria Retains 1.5 m bpd OPEC Quota as Group Extends Limits to 2026
OPEC has extended Nigeria’s crude-oil production quota of 1.5 million barrels per day (BPD) through December 2026, confirming the country’s official output limit for the coming year.
What the extension means:
- The decision was taken during the 38th ministerial meeting of OPEC and its cooperating non-OPEC members, under the framework of the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC).
- The extension aims to support global oil market stability by maintaining controlled output from member countries while demand and supply dynamics are monitored.
- The 1.5 m BPD quota represents a balance between market obligations and the country’s recovery efforts after years of fluctuating production.
Recent Performance:
- Nigeria’s crude-oil production has recently risen, with official data showing the country reached 1.539 million BPD in January 2025 — the first time Nigeria met the 1.5 m bpd benchmark since the quota was adjusted
- In June 2025, Nigeria again surpassed the quota, producing around 1.505 m BPD according to the latest report by OPEC.
These developments underscore a rebound in production, thanks to improved pipeline security, stronger upstream activity and renewed investment commitments in the country’s oil sector.
Government Ambitions vs Quota Reality
While Nigeria complies with the quota, the government remains ambitious. In 2025’s national budget, the country projected a crude-oil production target of 2.06 m BPD — a number that includes both crude and condensates.
However, the 1.5 m BPD quota under OPEC’s framework puts an effective cap on crude-only output. The government has previously explained that condensates (lighter hydrocarbons not counted under OPEC limits) will help bridge the gap toward its higher production goals.
What Lies Ahead
Retaining the 1.5 m BPD quota offers stability in uncertain global oil markets, but it also underlines the constraints on crude output. As the country strives to ramp up production, reduce oil theft and attract investment, meeting higher national production ambitions will likely depend on a combination .
Experts say that consistent compliance with OPEC quotas, allied with reforms to boost production capacity and infrastructure security, will be key if country is to sustainably grow its oil output and maximize revenue.
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